IMF: Tourism-fueled growth strong in Curaçao and Sint Maarten

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Curaçao and Sint Maarten are continuing to reap the benefits of a post-pandemic tourism boom, with both economies expanding strongly on the back of stayover arrivals and construction activity.

In its 2025 Article IV consultation, the IMF noted that disinflation has broadly continued, though Sint Maarten experienced a slight uptick in prices during 2024. The Fund added that while tourism receipts have surged, they have been offset by construction-related imports, leaving the union’s current account deficit elevated.

Despite this, fiscal positions in both countries remain strong and compliant with established rules. However, the IMF observed that progress on the landspakket — the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020 — has slowed, with the exception of advances in digitalizing permits.

Curaçao Outlook

The IMF projects Curaçao’s growth to moderate to 4% in 2025, supported by continued tourism expansion, construction, and higher public investment. Over the medium term, growth is expected to slow to 2% due to tourism saturation and weaker global demand.

Inflation is forecast to stabilize at 2.5% in 2025 before easing to 2% over time. Fiscal balances are expected to remain in surplus, while the current account deficit would narrow but stay elevated.

Sint Maarten Outlook

Growth in Sint Maarten is expected to remain robust, with the IMF projecting a 3% expansion in 2025 as hotel capacity continues to increase. Over the medium term, growth is anticipated to converge to 2% as the island reaches its tourism carrying capacity.

Inflation is forecast at 3.3% in 2025, tapering off to 2% thereafter. The IMF cautioned that Sint Maarten’s fiscal position could deteriorate temporarily due to higher investment spending, though its current account balance is expected to gradually shift into a small surplus.

Risks and Stability

The IMF warned that risks are tilted to the downside, pointing to potential shocks in global trade and investment, as well as a sharper-than-expected global slowdown, which could hit tourism and raise import costs. Conversely, stronger execution of infrastructure projects could provide an upside boost.

The Fund noted that monetary policy remains appropriately focused on maintaining the currency peg, while the financial sector is broadly sound, with banks adequately capitalized and highly liquid.