What a political game Jamaica’s Prime Minister, Andrew Holness, is playing. He seems to have become quite adept at playing the ‘cat and mouse’ political game. He also seems to have taken the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) as a political joke, watching in the wings as that party prepares for local government elections. He assured the country last year would be held by February 28, 2024. These are elections constitutionally due some four years ago, but with the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) enjoying a super-majority in the Jamaican House of Representatives, each year Holness has found a reason to postpone the elections for another year.
When the JLP held its annual conference last November, it was anticipated Holness would announce the local government elections’ date. But no date was announced. Last weekend, the national executive of the JLP met, and again there was anticipation Holness would announce an election date. Despite the party declaring it is ready for the elections, Holness still has not, as of the time of writing, announced a date.
What is Holness waiting for? His delay is sparking all kinds of speculations.
The primary speculation is that Holness isn’t confident the JLP can win the majority of parish councils in the next local government elections. Traditionally, strong incumbent Jamaican governments have held local government elections without fear of the outcome negatively impacting the tenure of that government. However, losing a local government election can turn the political tide against an incumbent government.
Constitutionally, Jamaica is scheduled to hold general elections after September 2025, but recent polls have indicated the ruling JLP is currently losing to the opposition PNP. It follows, therefore, that if the JLP loses the local government elections, it would be in a vulnerable position and likely pressured to call the general election prior to September 2025.
This has created another speculation that Holness is contemplating announcing historical dual elections, local and general, to be held simultaneously. Feeding this speculation is a recent suggestion by the general secretary of the PNP that Holness is waiting to announce the local government election date after the government presents its 2024/2025 expenditure budget, which should be in March.
If there is any validity in this suggestion, it would likely be that Holness isn’t just contemplating announcing the date of local government elections but general elections as well. It’s also traditional for incumbent governments to present very attractive budgets containing significant incentives and benefits to citizens, preparatory to a general election, not just for local government elections.
Opposition leader Mark Golding has indicated his readiness to take legal action if Holness fails to schedule the local government election by the end of February. Golding gave this indication in response to the Holness government’s recent amendment of the law to extend the tenure of parish councilors, a move that has sparked controversy. But with the JLP having the advantage of a supermajority in Parliament, Holness can continue to postpone the elections, and Golding’s lawsuit could have very little, if any, effect.
But it’s imperative that Holness settle the date for the local government elections and put an end to his cat and mouse game and the building speculations as he continues to play the game.
There are several issues reverberating in Jamaican society that voters want addressed. Interestingly, these are not issues that can be adequately addressed or solved by parish councils. But the results of the local government elections would indicate to the incumbent government the electorate’s mood pertaining to these issues. This could generate the changes the electorate wants, even if this means the government calling general elections earlier than constitutionally due.
The issues of concern to the Jamaican electorate, including the persistent wave of violent crime, public corruption, weaknesses in the educational and healthcare systems, also extend to the Jamaican Diaspora. A group in South Florida planned public demonstrations against crime and corruption in Jamaica, outside the Jamaican Consulate in Miami this weekend. This is not a positive picture for Jamaica. The cat and mouse game being played by Holness in dodging the local government elections isn’t helping the situation. Whether the results go against his administration or not, Holness has a responsibility to call the elections. He and his party colleagues may assume they continue to be a popular administration, but they could be sadly mistaken.
In the meantime, Jamaicans at home and in the diaspora need to hear more from PNP leader Golding about the party’s policies to address burning issues such as violent crime, public corruption, education, healthcare, and the fight against poverty. If a local government election is called, and the PNP wins, it must be in a position to contest a possible early pending general election. Jamaicans need to be convinced of the definitive policies a potential PNP administration has in place to improve on the performance of the incumbent government.
