As the Caribbean enters its cool season, the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook (CariCOF) provides insights into what the next three months have in store for the region.
From December to February, Caribbean islands and Belize will experience more comfortable temperatures and lower humidity levels. However, this period also marks the early dry season for these areas, with potential implications for drought conditions.
A shift in weather patterns
CariCOF points out that the cool season will bring with it a reduction in wet days and fewer spells of heavy showers, especially by February.
It said there is a concern for moderate drought in regions that are currently experiencing rainfall deficits. Northwest Belize, in particular, is expected to see more frequent dry spells.
Flood risks and dry conditions
Even though the potential for flooding and cascading hazards is anticipated to be moderate through December, mountainous areas are at a higher risk.
In the coastal Guianas, the secondary wet season may end up drier than usual, but flood potential remains high through January.
Drought across the Caribbean
As of November 1 this year, severe (or worse) short-term drought conditions have emerged in Belize, French Guiana, Guyana, and Suriname.
Additionally, long-term drought has developed in parts of eastern Cuba, Grenada, Saint Vincent, and Tobago.
Looking ahead to the end of February next year, short-term drought is expected to evolve in northern Belize, southern French Guiana, Grenada, western Puerto Rico, and northern and central Suriname, and may persist in other areas across the Caribbean.
Climate factors at play
CariCOF attributes these weather patterns to the unusually warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the presence of this year’s El Niño, both of which are expected to persist.
This means that unusually high air temperatures will likely prevail in many locations through May 2024, particularly during the nighttime.
Heat stress on the horizon
While these elevated temperatures should not lead to significant heat stress until March, the Caribbean heat season is expected to intensify in April and May. During this time, heat stress may become more prominent.
Changing risk profile
The risk of severe weather impacts, such as flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards, is expected to be relatively low in February and March but could increase sharply in April.
However, there is a real possibility that the peak of the dry season will be unusually intense, leading to growing concerns about drought, particularly in Belize and the Guianas.
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