Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by early next week, but forecasters warn that its slow movement across the Caribbean Sea poses a serious flood threat for parts of Hispaniola and Jamaica.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Melissa’s center is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea, several hundred miles south of Hispaniola, moving slowly toward the northwest. Outer rainbands are already bringing heavy showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for countries where strong winds could arrive within 48 hours, including Haiti and Jamaica. A hurricane watch indicates the possibility of hurricane-force winds, while a tropical storm watch signals potential tropical storm conditions in the same period.
Forecasters are tracking two possible paths for Melissa. In the first and increasingly likely scenario, the storm will move sluggishly westward through early next week before turning northeastward mid-to-late week toward Jamaica or the Cayman Islands, then Cuba and the Bahamas. In the second, less probable scenario, Melissa could curve northward sooner over Haiti or eastern Cuba and move out into the central Atlantic Ocean.
Meteorologists caution that Melissa’s slow pace means the system could linger over the region for several days, bringing prolonged heavy rainfall. The threat to the U.S. mainland, particularly South Florida, remains low for now but cannot be completely ruled out.
Wind shear may temporarily limit Melissa’s strengthening in the coming days, but conditions are expected to improve as it moves over the warm waters of the western Caribbean — the deepest heat reservoir in the Atlantic Basin. The NHC’s 11 a.m. advisory projects that Melissa could reach Category 3 strength south of Jamaica next week if it avoids land interaction and dry air.
Regardless of its eventual strength, Melissa’s slow crawl is expected to produce dangerous rainfall totals. Parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba could see more than 10 inches of rain through next week, raising the risk of life-threatening flash floods and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain.
Additional rainfall is also possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and portions of the Bahamas as the system continues to develop.
