The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued a forecast suggesting that the Caribbean region will experience more comfortable temperatures and lower humidity over the next three months.
This period also marks the build-up toward the peak of the dry season in the Caribbean region. However, CariCOF warns that this dry season may be even drier than usual for most Caribbean nations, bringing with it an increase in short- and long-term drought concerns.
Drought concerns highlighted in specific regions
CariCOF’s latest Caribbean Climate Outlook bulletin highlights specific regions at risk for drought-related issues. Belize, the Guianas, and Puerto Rico are expected to face the highest levels of concern.
The forecast predicts an increase in short dry spells and a higher potential for wildfires, particularly towards March. Despite this, there is still a chance of intense showers in central and southern parts of Belize, the Guianas, and mountainous areas of the Caribbean islands.
This keeps the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards moderate to high through January.
Mixed rainfall predictions across the Caribbean
CariCOF anticipates that Belize will experience mostly heavy rainfall during the dry season. However, for most Caribbean Islands and the Guianas, rainfall totals from January to March are likely to be either typical or less than usual.
As of December 1 last year, moderate or worse short-term drought conditions had developed in several areas, including Barbados, southeasternmost Cuba, Grenada, most parts of the Guianas, Martinique, southern Puerto Rico, and others.
Long-term drought had developed in additional regions, such as southern Barbados, parts of northern Belize, eastern Cuba, and more.
Expanding drought concerns
CariCOF warns that as of the end of March this year, short-term drought is evolving in areas like southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, interior French Guiana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northeast Suriname, with the possibility of developing or continuing in other areas.
This raises concerns about water scarcity and its potential impacts on agriculture and livelihoods.
Unusual temperature patterns ahead
Looking ahead to April through June, CariCOF forecasts higher-than-usual temperatures in most areas.
While the Caribbean Cool Season typically does not experience significant episodes of heat stress, persistently higher temperatures may lead to heatwaves in March, especially in areas with very low soil moisture content.
This period marks the transition from the dry to the wet season and the onset of the Heat Season in the Caribbean.
Factors influencing weather patterns
CariCOF notes that the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is expected to remain unseasonably warm during this period, while the strong El Niño is expected to fade.
This combination is likely to result in unusually high air temperatures in many locations through June 2024, increasing the risk of significant heat stress.
Elevated risk of severe weather
The forecast also suggests that the risk of severe weather impacts, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards, may sharply rise in April or May. The chance of an intense early wet season is higher than in most years.
Drawing a historical parallel, CariCOF cites 2010 as a reasonable analog for this year’s expected conditions, when a regional drought was followed by extreme heat, rainfall, and floods.
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