General elections are not constitutionally due in Jamaica until at least September 2025, and, possibly, up to December that year.
This is because the incumbent Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) was elected to form the government in September 2020, and as provided by the Jamaican Constitution can stay in power for five years from the date elected and up to three months after the five-year date.
However, the Constitution also gives the government the right to dissolve parliament, and call general elections, at any time prior to the completion of its five years in office.
To date, there’s no evidence the government led by Prime Minister Andrew Holness, plans to dissolve parliament and call an election before September 2025. But the actions of the opposing People’s National Party (PNP) suggest otherwise.
Boosted by recent polls indicating the party has surged ahead of the JLP in popularity with the Jamaican electorate, the PNP appears to be in general election campaign mode. In recent weeks the PNP, quite wisely, has been busy selecting general election candidates for several constituencies nationwide. The party has already rolled out its election slogan – “Time Come.” The time come to remove the JLP administration and replace it with a PNP administration led by the relatively new leader, Mark Golding.
But Holness has not shown any indication of risking his status as prime minister, and his party’s status as the incumbent government, to hold general elections. It could be political suicide for him to do so.
Although he may not think so, Holness has managed to, in less than three years since the JLP’s astonishing victory over the PNP in 2020, waste almost all of the political capital he gained back then. Clearly, Holness doesn’t seem very confident of winning a prematurely called general election.
He even seems apparently scared to hold local government elections which he has been postponing repeatedly. Highly expected to be held in February 2023, the government instead announced local Government elections were postponed until February 28, 2024.
Among the reasons given by the government to postpone the elections was holding them would risk diverting the government’s focus on “building national resilience against any future economic shocks, whether manmade or natural disaster and secondly, the expansion and maintenance of strong economic growth that all Jamaicans can see and feel at a personal level.”
It’s July 2023, seven months prior to February 2024, and while Holness and his government persistently tout the nation’s economic growth, it’s unknown if this growth is sufficient to protect the country from unexpected economic shock. Moreover, there’s no overt evidence that the perceived economic growth is being, or will be, felt or seen by millions of Jamaicans struggling to make their financial ends meet.
Unless something dramatically happens to boost the effectiveness of the JLP government in making most Jamaicans see and feel real economic benefits in their pockets, the JLP could likely lose the Local Government Elections in 2024. But even if the JLP does lose those elections there’s no guarantee Holness will call a general election soon after.
In 1986, the Edward Seaga-led JLP administration was overwhelmingly defeated by the PNP led by Michael Manley. But Seaga didn’t call the ensuing general elections until almost three years later, in May 1989, and was again soundly defeated by Manley and the PNP.
So, despite the positive showing by the PNP in recent polls, and despite party leader Golding seemingly cementing his leadership, there’s, as yet, no indication when Holness will decide to call general elections.
But, in the meantime, there’s a lot of work for the PNP to do.
For one, candidates selected by the party to contest the general elections must cement themselves in the respective constituencies as effective representatives of the people. Some of these constituency elections were controversial, and many voters would rather have another candidate of their choosing. To win seats the PNP must ensure consensus is built around the selected candidates.
Secondly, individuals appointed by Opposition Leader Golding to shadow the portfolio functions of government ministers need to be more effective in monitoring government policies and offering pragmatic alternatives to these policies. The PNP needs to show meaningful policy alternatives in critical areas, including fighting and eradicating violent crime; improvement in national healthcare; improvement in national education, especially in primary and secondary schools; improvement in accessibility of Jamaicans to housing; and ensuring poor Jamaicans be removed from marginalized economic existence to see and feel economic security.
If the PNP focuses on escalating its opposition to the policies of the JLP government and offers pragmatic policy alternatives in several critical areas, they could realistically form the next government whenever Holness decides to call general elections.
