More than 103,000 Vincentians are heading to 250 polling stations across St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday to elect a new government, in what analysts say is shaping up to be one of the closest races since Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves first came to office in 2001.
Gonsalves, 79, the longest-serving head of government in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), is leading the ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP) into the election seeking an unprecedented sixth consecutive term. He announced today’s election date earlier this month during a ULP rally, setting off a heated campaign in which constituency-level contests under the first-past-the-post system are expected to be decisive.
The race has been marked by contrasting polling results, underscoring how narrow the margins may be. A survey by Caribbean research firm DP Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company (DPBA) projects the ULP holding a slight edge, predicting the party could win around eight seats, with the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) close behind with seven. According to the firm’s probability model, the ULP has a 64 percent chance of retaining office, compared with 33 percent for the NDP.
However, a separate survey published by WIC News suggested the opposition may have gained momentum, placing NDP support at 49 percent versus 44 percent for the ULP. That poll also indicated the NDP leads in “most constituencies,” with the governing party ahead in only a few.
Both the ULP and the NDP are contesting all 15 constituencies. The National Liberation Movement (NLM) is fielding its leader, Dr. Doris Charles, in South Leeward, while independent candidate Kenna Questelles is running in West St. George.
In the last general election, the ULP won nine of the 15 seats. This year, 103,524 people are eligible to vote, compared with 101,744 in 2024. East St. George remains the largest constituency with 9,369 registered voters—the only one with more than 9,000—followed by South Leeward with 8,927.
Analysts say turnout among newly registered and younger voters could play a determining role, particularly in marginal constituencies where both major parties have mounted intensive ground campaigns.
The NDP, led by 66-year-old attorney Dr. Godwin Friday, is hoping to end the ULP’s 24-year hold on power. The party has focused on governance, cost-of-living pressures, and calls for new leadership—messages the DPBA poll suggests are resonating in several battleground seats.
Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. (local time) and will close at 5:00 p.m. Supervisor of Elections Dora James reiterated that proxy voting is not permitted and reminded all eligible voters, including those who are blind or living with disabilities, to make arrangements to visit their polling stations. Assistance will be provided to those who need it, she said, although the Electoral Office does not provide transportation. Political parties and community groups typically step in to support their members.
The election is being observed by a CARICOM Electoral Observer Mission (CEOM) and the National Monitoring and Consultative Mechanism.
