The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, is forecasting a transition to a much warmer-than-usual heat season across the Caribbean, with recurrent heatwaves expected as early as April.
This comes as the El Niño event in the Pacific begins to wane, while the Tropical North Atlantic experiences near-record warm temperatures.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication, CariCOF cautioned that the evolving climate patterns could lead to a surge in heatwaves and an increased risk of flooding and wildfires in various parts of the region between March and May this year.
According to CariCOF, March is likely to see high evaporation rates coupled with a peak in the frequency of short dry spells, which could exacerbate any ongoing drought conditions and elevate the risk of wildfires, particularly in the far northwest and southeast of the Caribbean. The situation is expected to shift significantly by April and May, with rainfall intensity and shower frequency predicted to rise sharply. This could heighten the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards across most parts of the region, with the exception of the ABC Islands — Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao.
As of February 1, 2024, long-term drought conditions have already developed in several areas, including Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname, northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Windward Islands.
CariCOF further warned that by the end of May 2024, long-term drought conditions could evolve in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland areas of French Guiana, northeastern and inland regions of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northern Suriname. There is also a possibility of drought persisting or emerging in northern Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, coastal French Guiana, northern Guyana, and Tobago.
The evolving climate patterns underscore the need for heightened preparedness and adaptation measures across the Caribbean to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves, droughts, and potential flooding in the coming months.
