The Barbados Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued a stark warning, indicating that 2024 is poised to be a year defined by climate extremes throughout the Caribbean region.
Intense heat season ahead
According to the latest bulletin released by CariCOF, the next three months leading up to July will see a return to normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with near-record warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean.
This forecast sets the stage for an intense Heat Season characterized by recurrent heatwaves.
Additionally, experts anticipate the possibility of an early onset of a vigorous wet season.
Rising risk of flooding
The bulletin underscores that with the anticipated increase in shower intensity and frequency, there is a heightened potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards across most areas, excluding the ABC (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao) Islands.
Uncertainty looms over Saharan dust incursions
However, a significant unknown factor remains: the frequency of incursions of dry, dust-laden Saharan air into the Caribbean. Should these incursions occur frequently, the region may experience erratic shower activity, compounded by dry spells.
This scenario could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions, elevate temperatures, and heighten the risk of wildfires, particularly in May.
Drought conditions persist
CariCOF reports that long-term drought conditions persist or are developing in various regions, including southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, French Guiana, northern Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad.
Moreover, short-term drought is evolving in western and southeast Belize, with the potential for further development in other areas such as eastern and northwest Belize and central French Guiana.
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