Fitch Ratings expects Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP ratio to decline faster than official forecasts, according to a new report released this month. The rating agency also highlighted the country’s successful general election held on September 3 in a separate but related update.
“Fitch Ratings forecasts Jamaica’s economy to expand by 2.1 per cent in 2025 after a contraction in 2024. We expect the debt/GDP ratio to reach 58 per cent in FY26, below the government’s target of 60 per cent,” the report stated.
Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 62.4 per cent, down from 67.3 per cent, following an update to the country’s international statistical methodology that increased the nominal value of GDP, according to a notice on the Ministry of Finance Debt Management Unit’s website. The total stock of public debt was $2.19 trillion as of August 2025.
Before adopting the new methodology, the government had projected the debt-to-GDP ratio would ease to 63.7 per cent by the end of the current fiscal year, March 2026, and further to 61 per cent in 2027, as outlined in the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy published in February. Jamaica is aiming for a debt ratio of 58.8 per cent by fiscal year 2027-28.
Fitch Ratings, headquartered in the United Kingdom and the United States, is one of the three major global credit rating agencies, along with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, both based in the U.S.
The forecast signals confidence in Jamaica’s fiscal trajectory despite recent economic headwinds. The agency cited sustained primary surpluses and adherence to medium-term fiscal rules as evidence of the country’s strong commitment to fiscal discipline. Growth is expected to be driven by tourism recovery, remittances, and public investment.
Fitch’s update also referenced Jamaica’s general election, noting that the results “signal continuity in key economic policies.” The Jamaica Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness, won a third consecutive term, though its parliamentary majority was reduced by 15 seats.
“Policy continuity supports macroeconomic stability and reinforces Jamaica’s credit profile,” Fitch wrote in its September bulletin, reaffirming the country’s ‘BB-’ rating with a Positive Outlook.
While praising Jamaica’s fiscal management, Fitch highlighted persistent structural challenges, including low productivity, high crime rates, and demographic pressures. External vulnerabilities—such as climate exposure and dependence on tourism—remain key risks.
The agency noted Jamaica may face growing pressure to increase spending in areas previously deprioritised during its decade-long debt reduction effort, including infrastructure and personal income tax relief—both emphasised in recent pledges by the JLP and the People’s National Party, led by Opposition Leader Mark Golding, albeit in different ways.
These pressures are expected to contribute to a modest decline in primary surpluses in 2025 and 2026, though surpluses are projected to remain above 3.0 per cent of GDP.
“Pressures may rise to increase spending in areas deprioritised to deliver large debt reduction over the last decade. For example, the PNP’s election manifesto prioritised infrastructure investment. Both parties also pledged to reduce the personal income tax burden to ease cost-of-living pressures,” the report on the election stated.
Nonetheless, Jamaica’s “strong track record of adherence to fiscal rules” and its demonstrated willingness to consolidate underpin Fitch’s view that the country will maintain fiscal discipline.
