Dr. Wayne Henry, the Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), has stated that the country is not in a recession, despite experiencing two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
Speaking at the agency’s quarterly press conference on Wednesday, Henry explained that the Jamaican economy remains relatively strong, citing the continued high demand for jobs as a sign of resilience.
Jamaica recorded a 1.8% decline in the October to December 2024 quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline, following a 3.5% decrease in the July to September period. While two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is commonly used as a definition of a recession, Henry emphasized that the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are still robust.
He attributed the downturn to the lingering impacts of natural disasters, particularly Hurricane Beryl and Storm Raphael, along with other hydrological events that disrupted key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, water supply, and wholesale and retail trade. The goods-producing industries fell by 4.7%, while services industries saw a smaller decline of 0.7%. The agriculture sector, in particular, experienced a sharp 12% drop.
Despite these challenges, Henry pointed out that other economic indicators, such as employment and income levels, continue to show positive trends. “It is the PIOJ’s assessment that the Jamaican economy, though facing a downturn in economic output, is not in a recession,” Henry said. “The economy is still relatively strong.”
Looking ahead, the PIOJ expects the economy to return to growth in the current January to March quarter, as recovery efforts from the effects of the storms take hold.
, has stated that the country is not in a recession){kind=link}