As June 1, the start of the 2024 hurricane season approaches, the traditional preseason forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are cause for real concern for Florida and Caribbean residents. In its startling release last week, NOAA predicted the busiest hurricane season in its history, with up to 25 named storms, between 8 and 13 hurricanes, and up to seven major hurricanes, with winds over 100 miles per hour (mph).
Forecasters say there’s an 85 percent chance, the highest odds they’ve ever issued, that the season will again be above average, driven by hot ocean temperatures, a La Niña that produces slower atmospheric winds that typically weaken storms, and a busy African monsoon season.
Even before the NOAA forecasts were announced, meteorologists on South Florida TV stations have been cautioning about a potentially over-active 2024 hurricane season because of the unusually high temperatures being experienced in the region over the past several weeks. Temperatures in South Florida have averaged 95F throughout May, feeling like an average of 103F making May 2024, one of the hottest May’s in history.
The extremely hot temperatures, normally associated with July and August, not May, have also heated up the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea way ahead of the normal schedule. According to NOAA surface temperatures in the Atlantic region where most storms form, are averaging 2 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. These temperatures are equivalent to what would normally be seen during August when hurricane season typically peaks.
Notably, surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea are hotter than during the 2005 season, which produced hurricanes like the devastating Hurricane Katrina which impacted Louisans and other Gulf States, and Hurricane Wilma which impacted South Florida.
Another major concern of NOAA and local meteorologists is that the hot surface waters surrounding the Caribbean Islands and South Florida have the potential to hasten the intensity of the storms that flare up. NOAA has referred to these storms that grow rapidly from tropical waves to full hurricane strength as “short fuse” storms. These “short fuse” storms give little warning. They are the storms that normally intensify as Category 5 storms with winds exceeding 157 mph. All Category 5 storms that made landfall in the US in the last century, according to NOAA, including Hurricane Andrew which ravaged South Miami in 1992, rapidly intensified in just over two days.
“The big ones are fast,” a spokesperson for NOAA said. “They don’t care about our timelines. Preparedness is absolutely everything. On those category fives, the average lead time was 50 hours.”
In recent years, almost every year hurricanes ranging from Category 3 to 5 have impacted the Caribbean, Florida, and the Gulf States. In addition to these devastating hurricanes which have taken lives, left hundreds homeless, and cost billions of dollars in property damage, there’s the impact of droughts, floods, forest fires, and tornadoes. Over the past weeks almost every day, a strong tornado has impacted regions in several US states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
The intensified weather patterns and systems are undoubtedly due to climate change, which has heated the surface of Earth. And, If the 2024 hurricane season turns out as forecasted it will extend a string of strong storm churning across the Atlantic and Caribbean as climate change continues to warm the planet.
As the wildfires rage, the floods worsen, tornadoes become more frequent and stronger, and hurricanes intensify, it boggles the mind that people, including some leading public officials, stubbornly refuse to accept these devastating weather-related events due to climate change. Refusing to accept the effects of climate change are real, and for public officials to not support policies to counter the effects of climate change is totally foolish and irresponsible. Such officials should be soundly voted out of any public office they hold.
It’s important that residents of South Florida and the Caribbean take heed of the aggressive forecast for the 2024 hurricane season.
One of the best ways to counter the effects of a hurricane is to be prepared for its impact. Unfortunately, too many people wait until a hurricane is almost at their front porch before taking precautions. This is also irresponsible. The oceans are very heated, and storms will intensify much faster, reducing the time for last-minute preparation. People are urged to prepare in advance, with the necessary supplies, evacuation plans, plans for family members who are sick and rely on electricity for their healthcare, and insurance coverage on the content of their homes. Residents, who are homeowners are also urged to ensure they have hurricane insurance on their properties.
Over the past decade, fortunately, South Florida and Caribbean countries like Jamaica, have been spared the impact of a strong hurricane. This has caused some people to lapse into a feeling of false security. This is dangerous, luck doesn’t last forever. It’s always better to be prepared than sorry.
