Opinion: Poll results are not election results

A recent, usually reliable, Jamaican poll has given the opposition People’s National Party (PNP), a relatively significant lead over the incumbent governing Jamaica Labor Party (JLP).

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Not surprisingly, the results of this poll have caused real hope within the PNP and its supporters of winning the next general elections.

But despite the results of the poll, a significant number of Jamaican voters have no real hope in a new government, or present government, running the affairs of the country. To be brutally honest, none of the governing administrations, and none of the nine prime ministers since Jamaica gained independence in 1962, has succeeded, or been allowed to succeed, in fulfilling the promise of making Jamacia even a reasonably prosperous country. A significant number of Jamaican voters have lost hope in government.

Too many communities in Jamaica seem frozen in time, a time of poverty. There are communities in urban and rural Jamaica one visited in 1962 that still seem unchanged in appearance and social/economic growth. Some communities seem forever labeled “poor” communities inhabited by genuinely poor, frustrated, and marginalized residents.

It’s fitting that the PNP has adopted the slogan “Time Come” as its election campaign slogan. The time has come for thousands of Jamaicans to be released from their prison of poverty. The time has come for Jamaica to rid itself of its unfortunate reputation as a nation of low productivity in various fields, and a nation of low or barely average income.

The time has come for fresh, positive changes from the Jamaican government.

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The latest Don Johnson poll suggests Jamaicans are disenchanted with the incumbent JLP government, who like other governments before came into power in 2016 and again in 2020 with much promise.

The positive polling results for the PNP are however no guarantee, if elected the PNP government, can effectively deliver what Jamaicans have been anticipating but denied since 1962.

Moreover, the positive polls are not sufficient assurance to the PNP that voters will elect that party to be the next government, or assurance to voters that if elected a PNP government will offer the changes badly needed.

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It is critical before the next elections are held that the PNP unfold and articulately explain policies across the broad spectrum of governance that not only offer hope to Jamaicans but appear to be pragmatic, with real possibilities of early implementation.  Jamaicans, especially poorer Jamaicans, small businesses, and the youth, don’t just need to get another wishy-washy party manifesto. Jamaicans need the PNP to reveal an empirical socio/economic developmental plan, a realistic plan to lift the country out of the sickening malaise of poverty, crime, corruption, and low productivity.

The burden falls on PNP leader Mark Golding to mobilize and motivate his party to develop such a plan. He has been working tirelessly and seems to be succeeding, in uniting the party and renewing it as a potent political force. But he still has to ensure the party, if it wants to be the next government, has sound policies to implement. With sound policies, he has a real chance of being the first Jamaican to be a promise keeper, not just a promise maker.

Golding has also proven to be a very effective opposition leader. His favorability seems to be increasing, including here in South Florida where he visited recently, and elsewhere in the diaspora. But he still has plenty of work to do in convincing the overwhelming majority of Jamaican voters to turn out to vote for him and his party in the next general elections and lead a government with ready-to-implement policies to move Jamaica to higher levels of economic prosperity and social equality.

The PNP, if it’s serious about forming the next government, must also focus on identifying and grooming potential cabinet ministers so they’ll understand the ramifications of the prepared policies so they can begin implementation upon taking office.  A major reason for the failures of past Jamaican governments is that people have been placed into important ministerial positions with little or no understanding of the missions of those ministries, and how to implement related policies. The PNP needs to take time before the next general election is held to be proactive and prepare a core of potential ministers and administrators to implement critical policies. Too much time has been wasted over the years with ineffective ministers and administrators.

Although the recent poll and results of February’s local government election indicate the governing JLP is losing popularity, it isn’t always easy to defeat the party holding governing power. It’s to be expected that the JLP will be taking advantage of the government machinery at its disposal to assert its power. There’s also word the JLP is outdoing the PNP in accumulating formidable campaign funding.  The PNP, as of now, cannot expect it will be an easy task in defeating the incumbent JL.P.

However, according to the polls, most Jamaicans are depending on the PNP for real, positive change. In the words of that great R&B song they are hoping “A Change Is Gonna Come.”

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