Jamaica’s population grows by just 600 people as birth rates decline

Jamaica’s population was estimated at 2,764,200 at the end of 2025, compared with 2,763,600 in 2024.

This represents a net population increase of just 600 people and a growth rate of 0.0 per cent, according to the 2025 edition of the Economic and Social Survey Jamaica, a publication of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).

According to the survey, Jamaica recorded 28,900 births and an estimated 21,300 deaths in 2025, resulting in a natural increase of 7,600 people. However, migration accounted for a loss of 7,000 individuals, compared with 8,800 in the previous year.

In explaining the low population growth, the PIOJ said Jamaica is undergoing demographic changes consistent with the final stages of the demographic transition model, “which is characterised by low fertility and low mortality rates; this contributes to low or negative population growth.”

“At the same time, demographic shifts are exacerbated by climate-related shocks, which are intensifying vulnerability, as evidenced by the impacts of Hurricane Melissa,” the PIOJ added.

The population changes come amid growing concern over Jamaica’s declining fertility rate, with the country now recording fertility levels below the rate needed to replace its population.

Health and Wellness Minister Dr. Christopher Tufton previously said the government is developing a National Fertility and Family Support Strategy aimed at addressing the social and economic challenges influencing family formation.

Tufton said the strategy is not about encouraging Jamaicans to have children for statistical reasons, but about creating conditions where families feel supported.

“The Government is not asking Jamaicans to have children for statistical reasons. It is committed to building conditions where family formation is genuinely affordable, structurally supported, and celebrated,” Tufton said.

The proposed strategy will examine measures including improved financial support for families, childcare assistance, parental leave, reproductive health services and stronger parenting support systems.

Tufton said Jamaica must have a broader national conversation about the factors affecting family decisions.

“It’s time to have a conversation in the interests of preserving families, our communities and society,” he said.

The PIOJ highlighted that Jamaica’s estimated population in 2025 also reflected changes in its age and sex composition. While a relatively large proportion of the population remains within the working age group (15–64 years), the country is seeing an increase in the dependent elderly population aged 65 years and over.

The share of the child population (0–14 years), however, continues to decline.

The PIOJ noted that “net migration loss, below replacement level fertility rates and population ageing have all had an impact on the population structure.”

The agency explained that over time, Jamaica has experienced a downward trend in both the crude birth rate and crude death rate. Other notable population trends include smaller household sizes and an increase in single-member households.

The PIOJ said several strategic initiatives continue to be implemented in response to Jamaica’s changing demographics. These initiatives align with national, regional and international frameworks, including Vision 2030 Jamaica National Development Plan; the National Population and Sustainable Development Policy and Programme of Action; the National Policy on International Migration and Development; the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development for Latin America and the Caribbean; and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Special emphasis has been placed on social protection, population ageing awareness, below-replacement fertility rates, health and non-communicable diseases, as well as education and skills training.

The PIOJ said investment in these areas is critical to mobilising Jamaica’s relatively large working-age population to support economic growth and sustainable development.

In the areas of international migration, civil registration, and diaspora and development, the agency said collaboration continued among government entities, non-governmental organisations and international development partners.

Key initiatives included mainstreaming the national policy on international migration and development at the local project level; development of the five-year Implementation Plan for the National Diaspora Policy; updating the national migration database by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica; review of the draft CARICOM Regional Labour Migration Policy Framework and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration; and dissemination of findings from a study on high-skilled migration in Jamaica, Belize and Grenada.