Florida could have its first Black governor and senator

Florida’s primary elections on August 18 were highlighted by strong

victories by two African Americans. Byron Donalds, the son of a

Jamaican mother and a Panamanian father, overwhelmingly won the

Republican primary for governor with about 48%. He now faces David

Jolly, who won the Democratic primary. In the biggest upset of the

night, Angie Nixon, a progressive, defeated Alex Vindman 56% to 44%,

despite being dramatically outspent in the Democratic primary for the

U.S. Senate. Nixon will now face Republican Ashley Moody in

November.

Should either Donalds or Nixon win in November, they would make Florida history. Donalds would become the state’s first Black governor, while Nixon would become Florida’s first Black U.S. senator.

Donalds is in a strong position for November because Florida remains a

heavily Republican state, and Democrats have not won a Florida

gubernatorial election since 1994.

Nixon’s surprise victory indicates there is considerable dissatisfaction

with the traditional Democratic establishment. In her primary

campaign, she mobilized labor, Black churches and progressive voters

across the state.

President Donald Trump’s endorsement helped Donalds tremendously,

but several Trump-backed candidates elsewhere in Florida lost,

including Catalina Lauf, who lost her congressional race, while scandal-

plagued Republican Congressman Cory Mills was also defeated.

Donalds’ and Nixon’s results were fascinating because they

simultaneously showed continued Republican dominance and growing

dissatisfaction with establishment politics on both sides.

A Black Republican winning the governorship of Florida would be an

extraordinary historical development. It would indicate how much

Florida’s political coalition has changed since the days when it was

considered a genuine swing state.

South Florida voters supported both Donalds and Nixon heavily,

although voter turnout in the region was low. Donalds received 58% of

the vote in Miami-Dade, 54% in Broward, and 59% in Palm Beach

County. Nixon received 60% in Miami-Dade and 56% in Broward, but

44.6% in Palm Beach County, where she lost to Vindman, who received

55.4%.

Nixon’s primary victory shows Democrats can still generate substantial

enthusiasm among their core voters. She defeated Alex Vindman

despite being dramatically outspent, having raised less than $1 million

compared with Vindman’s roughly $16 million.

Despite the racial factor, both Donalds and Nixon did well in Northern

Florida. In Brevard County, for example, Donalds received 46.1%, and in

Lake County, 45.18%. His strong performance among conservative

Republicans outside South Florida is actually one of the more

encouraging aspects of this election from the standpoint of racial

politics.

A Black Republican didn’t merely squeak through a Republican primary

because of Black or minority voters. He won the Republican nomination

in a predominantly white, strongly conservative state. That is

historically significant.

Angie Nixon, who is from Jacksonville, won Florida’s Democratic

primary with substantial support in North Florida, particularly in and

around Jacksonville. This is important because North Florida is generally

much more conservative and whiter than South Florida. Nixon’s victory

therefore indicates that a significant portion of North Florida

Democrats turned out for her. Her background as a Jacksonville state

representative and community organizer gave her an enormous

advantage in name recognition and grassroots organization there.

Donalds demonstrated that a Black Republican can win substantial

support among predominantly white conservatives in North Florida.

Nixon demonstrated that a Black progressive woman can mobilize Black

and Democratic voters in that same region.

The primary elections indicate that North Florida has two very strong

and very different political constituencies: conservative white

Republicans, who overwhelmingly favor Donalds and the Republican

ticket; and Black and progressive Democrats, particularly around

Jacksonville and other population centers, who strongly supported

Nixon.

Political analysts believe that if Nixon can expand that

Jacksonville/Black-voter coalition into a much larger statewide coalition

among independents, young voters and moderate Democrats, the

November race could become considerably more competitive than the

conventional “safe Republican” assessment suggests.