Drier than normal seasonal rainfall forecast for the Caribbean region

The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says drier than normal seasonal rainfall and fewer than normal wet days and wet spells are expected across most of the Caribbean region for the three-month period ending in July.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, released on Friday, CariCOF said the ongoing weather pattern during May to July could delay the onset of the rain season. “However, wetter than normal seasonal rainfall and an increase in wet spells is expected along The Guianas, Cayman Islands, and The Bahamas, where marginal flash flood and soil erosion potential may develop.”

CariCOF said extreme wet spells are not expected to feature more than usual for the region, noting that “in general, temperatures are expected to be close to normal across the region with an expected reduction in dry spells.

“Incursions of Saharan dust typically peak in frequency at this time,” it added. Last year the Caribbean experience several days of air pollution and poor visibility caused by Saharan Dust.

CariCOF said as of April 1, moderate or worse, shorter-term drought has developed in northeast Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Vincent, while moderate longer-term drought has developed in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (the ABC islands), Antigua, the northernmost and southeastern Bahamas, Barbados, southeast Belize, western Cuba, Dominica, the eastern Dominican Republic., Guadeloupe, southwest Haiti, eastern Jamaica, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines, and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI).

It said long terms drought is evolving in the ABC Islands, Barbados, most of Belize, western Cuba,

Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, Saint Martin, and the USVI might develop or continue the northern Bahamas, parts of eastern Belize, St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago, and northern Suriname.

CariCOF warned that with few wet days, wildfire potential is expected to peak in May.

CMC/