The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) says it is closely monitoring climate indicators suggesting the possible development of a major El Niño event, warning that it could bring hotter and drier conditions to the island in the coming months.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This shift can disrupt normal weather systems around the world, often reducing rainfall in parts of the Caribbean while increasing temperatures and the likelihood of drought conditions.
In a statement issued Wednesday, the Met Service said Jamaica saw above-average rainfall during much of the traditional dry season between January and April 2026. However, it noted that recent data points to a shift toward warmer and drier conditions across several areas of the country.
“Current climate indicators suggest the likely emergence of a major El Niño event during the year,” the agency said. “Historically, such events have been associated with reduced rainfall across parts of the Caribbean region and increased temperatures, creating conditions that can elevate the risk of drought and heat-related impacts.”
The agency warned that if the projected conditions materialise, Jamaica could experience reduced rainfall during the summer period and into the peak of the main rainy season in October. It said this could strain water supplies, disrupt agricultural production, and increase heat stress on crops and livestock.
Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, said the agency is maintaining close watch on the evolving climate signals.
“We have observed a reduction in rainfall activity alongside increasing temperatures across sections of the island,” Thompson said. “While there remains some uncertainty regarding the strength and progression of the event, we are maintaining heightened vigilance and will continue to provide timely updates.”
The Met Service added that it is working with regional and international partners to strengthen forecasting and ensure timely public advisories as conditions evolve.
The Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change is urging Jamaicans to remain alert to official updates and to continue practicing water conservation as a precaution.
In response to the potential risk, the National Drought Management Committee has been activated and is expected to meet within the next 10 days to assess preparedness measures.
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