The Eastern Caribbean is bracing for severe sargassum influxes over the coming months, with forecasts indicating significant buildups that could impact various island regions differently.
The Sargassum Sub-Regional Outlook Bulletin, issued for April 29 to July 30, 2024, by the Sargassum Team at The Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the University of the West Indies, Barbados, highlights an increase in sargassum across the Central Atlantic, complicating coastal management efforts.
Regional breakdown of Sargassum accumulation
The densest accumulations are currently observed east of Barbados and Trinidad.
In contrast, cloud cover near the Guianas is making it difficult to ascertain the extent of sargassum in that area. Each region within the eastern Caribbean faces varying degrees of sargassum impact according to the latest predictions.
- Northern Islands: The northern part of the Caribbean is expected to experience mild to moderate sargassum influxes during the next three months, suggesting less severe conditions compared to their southern neighbors.
- Middle Islands: These islands are on alert for moderate to severe influxes within the next two months, escalating to severe levels by July.
- Southern Islands: Already grappling with very severe sargassum influxes, the situation in the southern islands is expected to remain critical throughout May, with some respite anticipated as conditions moderate in early June, continuing into July.
Uncertainty ahead
Despite the detailed regional forecasts, the outlook remains uncertain. Cloud coverage that currently obstructs the detection of sargassum could alter expectations, making it difficult to predict the exact timing and severity of future influxes.
