The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday that elevated ocean temperatures and a delayed El Niño are significantly increasing the likelihood of a severe Atlantic hurricane season in the upcoming summer and fall.
Predicting the intensity: The Atlantic Hurricane season outlook
The current Atlantic hurricane season has been noticeably busier than usual. Responding to these developments, NOAA adjusted their storm projections upwards.
As per the updated estimates, there is a 60 per cent likelihood of the hurricane season being above average, a stark contrast from their initial May forecast which put the odds at just 30 per cent.
Previously, the NOAA had predicted a higher chance of the season being near-normal, placing the odds at 40 per cent.
However, with recent observations, the probability for a normal season has been revised to just 25 per cent.
Preparing for a turbulent season
While NOAA does not provide specific storm trajectories or identify potential impact zones, an active season typically implies a significantly higher probability of hurricanes reaching the US East Coast.
In terms of storm counts, NOAA’s updated forecast anticipates 14 to 21 named storms.
This is a noticeable uptick from their May prediction of 12 to 17. A standard year typically witnesses 14 named storms.
Diving deeper into the predictions, NOAA expects that out of the named storms, six to 11 might escalate to hurricane status, an increase from the earlier forecast of five to nine.
Historically, the average stands at seven hurricanes per year. Furthermore, out of these, two to five are projected to intensify into major hurricanes, boasting wind speeds exceeding 110 mph.
This estimate is slightly higher than the earlier one and compared to an average year, which usually sees three major hurricanes.
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