The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, forecasts a complex weather pattern for the region from July to September.
They predict that storms and showers could become more unpredictable and that high temperatures are expected to persist, especially in the Lesser Antilles.
The impact of La Niña and Tropical North Atlantic
CariCOF’s analysis indicates that 2024 is set to be a year marked by significant climate extremes in the Caribbean.
A cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific suggests a progression toward a La Niña phase, while unusually warm temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic are likely to continue over the next three months.
Intense weather expected during critical seasons
According to the latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks Newsletter, the peak of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, combined with the Caribbean Wet Season and Heat Season, could bring about frequent and intense periods of oppressive humidity and heat.
This scenario heightens the likelihood of tropical cyclones and severe weather events, increasing the risk of flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards.
Variable storm activity and persistent heat
CariCOF also highlighted the potential for more frequent intrusions of dry Saharan air, particularly in July.
This could lead to erratic storm and shower activity while maintaining record-high temperatures in the Lesser Antilles.
Drought conditions across the Caribbean
The forum has identified severe or worse short-term drought conditions in regions such as Belize, northern Guyana, and the United States Virgin Islands as of June 1.
Moreover, a long-term drought is expected to persist in Western Cuba, French Guiana, eastern parts of Guadeloupe, northern Guyana, and Suriname until the end of November.
Northern French Guiana, Trinidad, parts of Belize, central French Guiana, and Tobago may also experience or continue to face drought conditions.
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