The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, is emphasizing its previous alerts about the likelihood of extreme weather conditions throughout the Caribbean in 2024.
Forecasting a year of climate anomalies
According to the latest edition of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF projects a challenging climate period from June to August.
The onset of La Niña, characterized by cooling sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to coincide with unusually warm conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean.
This combination is anticipated to trigger a series of climate extremes, including an intense heat season with recurrent heatwaves, a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season, and a heavy wet season.
Potential for severe weather conditions
The forecast also points to increased risks of frequent and intense showers that could lead to significant flooding, flash floods, and other related hazards.
The situation may be exacerbated if there is a higher-than-usual frequency of dry Saharan air, which can disrupt storm and shower activity, potentially worsening any water shortages caused by low rainfall and high evaporation rates observed during the preceding dry season.
Drought concerns across the region
Severe short-term drought conditions have already emerged in several areas, including Belize, Martinique, eastern French Guiana, northern Guyana, and Suriname, while a long-term drought is evolving in parts of eastern Cuba, Guadeloupe, northern Guyana, Trinidad, and Suriname.
Escalating heat stress through late 2024
From September to November, the Caribbean is expected to continue facing elevated night-time and daytime temperatures, alongside increased air humidity. These conditions will likely contribute to frequent episodes of heat stress.
The late wet season, peaking in these months, will be marked by an unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic and persistent La Niña conditions, leading to high air temperatures and humidity levels.
The combination of these factors is expected to not only enhance heat stress but also increase the likelihood of severe weather impacts, including more frequent tropical cyclones and unusually heavy rainfall.
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