Prime Minister Andrew Holness is urging Jamaicans to pay closer attention to the country’s declining birth rate, warning that the trend could have serious long-term consequences for the economy and workforce.
According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Jamaica’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population. The country’s population is now estimated at 2.7 million, with a 0.1 percent decline recorded in 2024.
Speaking recently, Holness said the drop in births over the last several years has been significant.
“It may shock you to learn that since 2018, our birth rate has fallen by 24 percent,” he said while addressing members of what he described as the country’s most productive and fertile generation.
Holness noted that many people assume a falling birth rate could ease pressure on government spending, particularly in areas such as education and social services. However, he cautioned that the reality is more complex and could ultimately create new challenges.
“Surprisingly, but counter-intuitively, there is a view that your education budget should be reduced and you don’t have to worry about funding all kinds of social services,” he said. “But it means less people to support the pension system… less people available for the labour force.”
According to the prime minister, a shrinking labour pool combined with inefficiencies in the public system could slow national productivity and complicate economic growth.
“If you lay inefficient bureaucracy on a tightening labour pool, wages are going to go way up and productivity is going to go way down,” Holness said. “It’s a serious social issue that we face.”
He also used the opportunity to call on members of the Jamaican diaspora to consider returning home, saying the country needs a net gain of talent to support development.
“I am very happy when I hear Jamaicans who have migrated saying, ‘You know what, I want to come back home,’” he said. “We need to stimulate a net return, a net gain of talent back into Jamaica.”
Holness acknowledged that some Jamaicans overseas cite issues such as infrastructure and bureaucracy as barriers to returning, but he said the government is working to improve efficiency across the public sector.
“We can’t continue to see things the same way we have seen them for the last 50 years,” he said, emphasizing the need for new thinking and cultural change.
Holness added that improving efficiency must become a national priority alongside security and fiscal stability, arguing that a shift in mindset will be necessary for Jamaica to achieve sustained growth.
“Efficiency is a key driver for growth,” he said, expressing hope that the next generation will help move the country toward becoming a prosperous place to live, work, raise families, do business and retire.
