The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Belize’s economy has made a strong recovery since the pandemic, but growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with the country facing several challenges that need to be addressed to maintain stability and reduce its debt.
The update follows a visit from an IMF team between July 1–11, during which officials met with Prime Minister John Briceño, government ministers, opposition members, the private sector, and labor unions.
The IMF noted that Belize’s economy grew by 8.1% in 2024, driven by tourism, trade, and transport. As a result, the poverty rate dropped from 36% in 2021 to 22% last year. Public debt also fell sharply, from 103% of GDP in 2020 to 61% in 2024, thanks to a rebound in revenue, wage restraint, and debt deals including a marine protection swap and a discount on PetroCaribe debt.
However, the growth rate is projected to fall to 1.5% in 2025, mainly due to fewer tourist arrivals and issues in the agriculture sector, such as bad weather and crop disease. Growth is expected to stabilize at around 2% over the medium term. Inflation is also expected to drop to 1.3% as global prices ease.
The IMF said that while financial stability has improved, more needs to be done to boost access to financing, attract investment, and prepare for natural disasters, which continue to threaten tourism and agriculture.
To stay on a strong path, the IMF recommends gradual increases in government savings, reforms to the public pension system, better tax collection, and investments in job training, infrastructure, and crime prevention. It also called for action to address skill shortages, especially as population growth slows.
The IMF also noted Belize’s vulnerability to climate change, praising ongoing efforts to build resilience through clean energy investments and climate planning. It encouraged adoption of a national disaster strategy to improve coordination.
Belize’s financial sector remains stable, but the IMF urged authorities to improve credit access, strengthen the safety net for banks, and continue efforts to combat money laundering and terrorism financing, where recent international reviews have shown progress.
The IMF team will prepare a full report with its findings and recommendations.
