The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says a persistent weak La Niña pattern is expected to continue during the next three months, causing unpredictable weather patterns across the region, which may drive increasing uncertainty into the seasonal rainfall forecast.
La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean waters along the tropical west coast of South America. La Niña is considered to be the counterpart to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean.
“This uncertainty points the AMJ rainfall and wet day forecast towards climatology across most of the region with equal chances for above normal, normal, and below normal probabilities,” the CariCOF said in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter for the period April to June this year.
It said, however, a small increase in wet spell frequency is expected for the eastern Caribbean which could lead to marginal flash flood and soil erosion potential from May.
“Extreme wet spells for the region are expected along coastal Guyana, but are not expected to feature prominently for other Caribbean locations during the upcoming season,” it added.
According to the publication, as of March 1, shorter-term drought has developed in Antigua, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent with moderate longer-term drought developing in the northwest Bahamas, western Cuba, Dominica, southeastern Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent.
Long-term drought from the end of May is predicted for Antigua, Aruba, central and southern Belize, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Lucia and might possibly develop or continue in northern parts of The Bahamas, Barbados, northern Belize, western Cuba, southern parts of The Dominican Republic, the United States Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, St. Vincent, and Trinidad.
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