The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued its latest forecast for the upcoming months, highlighting significant climate patterns and potential hazards for the region.
According to the forecast, the Pacific’s El Niño event is expected to weaken, while near-record warm temperatures are anticipated in the Tropical North Atlantic from March to May.
Transitioning into a warmer season
El Niño, characterized by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, plays a pivotal role in shaping global weather patterns.
As the region moves into the warmer phase of this phenomenon, the Caribbean is poised to experience above-average temperatures and recurrent heatwaves as early as April.
Shifting weather patterns
CariCOF’s Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication indicates that March may witness high evaporation rates and a peak in the frequency of short dry spells.
This could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires, particularly in the far northwest and southeast regions. However, from April to May, a notable shift is expected, with rainfall intensity and frequency projected to rise sharply.
This surge in precipitation heightens the potential for flooding, flash floods, and associated hazards across most areas, excluding the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao).
Drought concerns
As of February 1, 2024, several Caribbean territories have already experienced long-term drought conditions. These include Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname, northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Windward Islands.
Looking ahead, CariCOF warns that by the end of May 2024, additional regions may face evolving or persistent drought, including southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland portions of French Guiana, northeastern and inland portions of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northern Suriname.
There is also a possibility of drought development or continuation in other areas such as Central Cuba, Dominica, coastal French Guiana, northern Guyana, and Tobago.
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