The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is forecasting neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions for the Pacific, while warning of persistent abnormal warmth north of the Caribbean and a highly active heat and rainfall season across the region.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks, the Barbados-based agency said the near-average sea surface temperatures, coupled with lingering warmth around the region, could spell trouble for Caribbean territories as the peak of the heat season approaches in August and September.
According to CariCOF, these climate patterns are expected to trigger recurrent bouts of excessive humid heat, including heatwaves, especially in areas less affected by Saharan dust. These extreme conditions will be compounded by a rise in rainfall intensity and shower frequency, increasing the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards.
The forum also highlighted the rising likelihood of Atlantic hurricane activity, particularly through September, but also in July and August—especially during periods with reduced Saharan dust, which tends to suppress tropical cyclone development.
“Saharan dust episodes, combined with slackened winds, produce hot and humid spells with reduced air quality, all the while stifling intense showers and tropical cyclone activity,” the bulletin explained.
CariCOF also provided a drought update, noting severe short-term drought in parts of The Bahamas, Belize, and Cuba, with long-term drought conditions in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and others.
Health and productivity concerns
The agency warned that as temperatures soar, the region could see an uptick in heat-related illnesses, including fainting, heat exhaustion, and hospitalisations, particularly affecting children, the elderly, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic illnesses.
Occupational health risks will also increase, with outdoor workers facing reduced productivity, exhaustion, and heightened biological risks, including from Aedes mosquito-borne diseases and gastrointestinal infections.
CariCOF noted that “increased sweating, water consumption, and even binge eating during extreme heat” could lead to health issues like hypertension, diabetes, and weight gain, along with irritability and aggression during prolonged heat waves.
Hotspots and heat spell forecast
The forecast predicts 25 or more hot spell days between July and September for several territories, including The Bahamas, Grand Cayman, northwest and southeast Jamaica, Dominica, Martinique, St Lucia, St Martin, and St Croix.
While cooling breezes and frequent rainfall may provide occasional relief, CariCOF warns that nights will remain particularly warm, posing ongoing health and energy challenges.
As the season cools post-October—or November for the Guianas—CariCOF expects a gradual decline in heat intensity.
The forum urges governments, health systems, and the public to remain vigilant and prepare for the combined threats of heat, flooding, and hurricane activity over the next several months.
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