The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories for a developing system in the western Caribbean Sea, officially designating it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.
This classification, announced as of 4 p.m. on Sunday, indicates the disturbance is expected to impact land within 48 hours, despite not yet reaching tropical depression or storm status.
The system currently holds maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving northeast at 7 mph. Positioned approximately 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, it could soon strengthen into a named storm, with “Rafael” as the next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane list.
A hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac, while Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning. Forecasters anticipate that Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will intensify into a tropical storm by Monday as it approaches Jamaica, with hurricane conditions possible in the Cayman Islands from Tuesday into Wednesday.
4pm EDT 11/3 Key Messages on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Eighteen. A tropical storm warning has been issued for #Jamaica, and a hurricane watch has been issued for the #CaymanIslands.
See https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ for more details. pic.twitter.com/bISg7oy6uf
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 3, 2024
“This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and steady strengthening is forecast,” stated the NHC. Early projections indicate that Rafael could achieve Category 1 hurricane strength as it nears western Cuba by Wednesday.
Meteorologists are cautioning residents of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and southern Cuba to brace for severe weather conditions over the coming days. The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, tropical storm-force winds, storm surges, and high surf. Predicted rainfall accumulations range from 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals potentially reaching up to 9 inches. The NHC has warned of possible flooding in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with a risk of mudslides.
While the system’s path later in the week remains uncertain, forecasters emphasize that heavy rainfall could spread north into Florida and the southeastern United States by mid-to-late week. Those in the Florida Keys are urged to stay updated as the disturbance may approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm. However, the NHC notes it is still too early to determine potential impacts.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have already begun investigating the system and plan two additional reconnaissance missions within the next 24 hours to gather further data.
